Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
